The cut in wheat production adds pressure to Argentina’s wheat balance
FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
In addition to the bad weather effect, stored wheat levels are currently the lowest in history, which leaves no room for any significant increase of exports. However, export sales this cycle already reached 5.9 million tons that is four times last season's figures.
According to the Secretariat of Agribusiness, by November 14, exporters' new wheat purchases reached 7.15 million tons, which is one and a half times last cycle's record and it represents the largest volume in history by this time of the year. In addition to exporters' purchases, millers' purchases reach 422,000 tons, totaling 7.6 million tons. Given an estimated 19.3 million tons supply, there would be only 11.7 million tons left to market –lowest in record in the last 5 years- as harvest season just begin in Argentina. The result of comparing the current stock of non-commercialized wheat (11.7 Mt) with total demand –adding internal and external consumption- is that given an estimated 19 Mt total supply, the remaining wheat covers only 60% of the estimated demand, the lowest record from 2000 onwards at least.
The relatively low supply does not only support wheat futures but it also adds a lot volatility to the market. Between Tuesday and Thursday, more than 1,000 trucks loaded with wheat entered daily Rosario Hub's terminals. This number of deliveries almost doubled last week's records. The rapid pace of deliveries respond to a very ambitious shipment program that aims to ship close to half a million tons from the Rosario Hub's port by mid-December, 40% up last year's records.
As for wheat prices in the local market, March future price has increased by 10% reaching US$ 195.5/t, while July future grew by 17%. Despite the bullish mid-term signals, in the short-term, wheat price in the local market is under the pressure of the harvest season.