Wheat production decreased 2 million tons due to drought, frost and hail

GEA

The rains continue without leaving water in the west and the center of the Pampean region. The lack of water becomes acute at the moment in which the area goes through its most critical stages. The need for important rains is urgent to be able to complete the grains and reverse the fall of yields. The low temperatures of last week are being evaluated and are surprising because of the high impact they show. There are large areas affected with damage of 10 to 100%. The cold fronts are also causing very intense storms that have multiplied the hail events. In the central region already 60 thousand hectares lost for all these causes are contemplated. An estimated 190 thousand have been damaged. No significant adjustments have been made to the implanted area of wheat compared to the previous estimate. Thus, with 6.32 million hectares, wheat cultivation consolidates a year-on-year increase of 16%. It is considered a harvestable area of 6.13 million hectares and a national yield of 3.1 Tn/ha. In this way, 19 million tons of wheat are estimated for the current production cycle in Argentina.
The sowing of corn continues delayed Planting is delayed by 6 points compared to the last 5 seasons. The progress of the sowing tasks covers 1.21 million hectares, 18.3% of an intention of 6.6 million hectares. The lack of water puts in doubt the final concretion of this area. Many plots could end up moving to soy, instead of being made with corn in December. The sowing shows a slow advance, limited to the availability of humidity of each zone. It has covered 18.3%, about 1.21 million hectares, when it would have to have been implemented almost 1.6 million hectares. Rains of more than 25 mm are expected so that implementation tasks are generalized. Although an increase of 2.6% is estimated for the new corn planting with respect to its previous cycle, a new passage from area to soybean is not ruled out if the dry weather continues. Therefore, there could be further adjustments in the coming months that affect the final level of planting. If the 6.6 million hectares of corn are confirmed, it would be against a harvestable base of 5.6 million hectares. This allows to project a corn campaign with a volume close to 43 million tons.
Soybean 2018/2019 The planting area of soybeans 2018/2019 could add new plots that come down from the first corn. For the moment, it remains at 17.9 million hectares and a projection of 50 million hectares of soybeans, but there is a chance that this will change in the short term and adjust upwards.