Abstract

This year’s sharply reduced crops in the CIS and Europe, while partly offset by increased carry-in stocks, are expected to lead to a reduction of 1.2% in global grain supplies in 2010/11. Coupled with further growth in consumption, this will result in a somewhat tighter supply and demand balance, reversing three successive years of stock building. The latest forecasts incorporate some downward revisions for crops, mainly maize in the US and wheat in the CIS region, but also reflect improved prospects in Australia.

With both the global grain area and average yield expected to fall, largely as a result of adverse weather in several exporting countries, world production in 2010/11 is forecast at 1,741m. tons, down from last year’s record 1,787m. and 4m. below the previous month’s projection