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19/09/2017 0:00 - Agricultural Commodities Market
Wheat: the sole survivor of a bearish USDA report

While a waterfall of corn and soybean floods the markets, wheat remains safe from increasing supply. USDA cut its estimates for the already abundant ending stocks for the 2017/18 season due to higher demand. Meanwhile, excess moisture in fields generate uncertainty about wheat production in Argentina.

According to the latest USDA report, Argentina wheat production would reach 17.5 million tons in the 2017/18 marketing year. This figure is around 1 million tons above from local private expectations. Rosario Board of Trade’s Strategic Guide for Agribusiness estimated that about 250 thousand wheat hectares have been lost to water excesses in the province of Buenos Aires. Under this scenario, the Argentinian wheat area is expected to stand at 5.4 million hectares, which would give way to a production of about 16 to 16.5 million tons assuming average yields.

Some images are worth a thousand words. The following satellite picture made by INTA highlights flooded areas (in a scale of blues) over the last two weeks. Because of productive losses combined by an active wheat export activity, the lower final stocks projected a bullish scenario for 2017/18 wheat marketing year.


At the Rosario spot grain market, cash wheat was traded at around ARS 2,600 to ARS 2,650 per ton. Wheat negotiation has slowed down since at beginning of this month. However, this week, new bids for new crop wheat have made an appearance, trading from USD 160 to 163 per ton depending on the month of delivery. In the Buenos Aires Future Exchange (MATba), wheat prices for January 2018 reached a minimum of USD 160/ton on September 5, and since then they have risen to USD 165.5/ton.


 Institutional video

Institutional Video of the Bolsa de Comercio of Rosario (Rosario Board of Trade)

 Rosario Board of Trade

The Rosario Board of Trade is a centennial institution located in Rosario, in the most important agroindustrial zone of Argentina. Throughout its history it has created and boosted transparent, solid and reliable markets: the Grains Physical Market, the Futures Market, the Capital Market, and the Livestock Market.

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Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario Córdoba 1402 - S2000AWV
TE: (54 341) 5258300 / 4102600
Rosario - Santa Fe - Argentina

Oficina Buenos Aires Reconquista 458 piso 7° - C1003ABJ - Cdad. de Buenos Aires.
Tel: (54 - 011) 43280390/1484 43939391/9649- Fax: (54 - 011) 43939649