Almost 15,000 trucks delivered wheat to Rosario’s terminal ports in November to the 25th, setting a record for this month and signaling a strong beginning for the new commercial year that officially begins on 1st December.
We should note that only trucks arriving to the ports until 6 am are taken
into account for registration, and the actual number of units is usually
well above these numbers at harvest time. In particular, if each truck
loads on average 28 tons of grain, it would set a floor of 420,000 tons for
the month. However, on the basis of official information deliveries of
wheat at Rosario’s hub terminal ports exceeds 530,000 tons so far in
November, that is, 45% higher than the same month in 2016. In addition,
grain delivery commitments for next month in our port node amount to 1.7
million tons, already exceeding 1.6 Mt of December 2016 and called to still
continue escalating as the weeks goes by.
In the same line, information by NABSA points out that so far this November
the lineup for vessels carrying Argentinian wheat account for more than a
million ton (1.12 Mt, specifically). As a reference, for the same period in
2016, total volume shipped was practically half that, around 680,000 tons.
With regard to harvest progress, the peace is in line with the average of
the last years with the exception of some specific areas where the grain
was "snatched" as a consequence of high temperatures during November. With
the first references of harvest results, we are optimistic regarding yields
but not so much for some key quality attributes such as protein content,
though it is still too early to come to conclusions. From now on, it can be
expected that if the December rains are actually below normal as a result
of La Niña predicted by international organizations, harvest will progress
quickly this season.
With regards to prices, they are feeling the seasonal influence of harvest,
though with a stronger dollar anticipated for the months to come prices in
Argentinian peso are expected to remain quite stable in the next couple of
months. From there onwards, an adjusted supply relative to the demand may
put a limit to prices downtrend. At the same time, a series of factors are
seemed to be supporting prices in the future, mainly: a) the Brazilian and
Uruguayan harvests lower than initially forecast; b) the volume committed
to export, which already amounts to 1.8 million tons (the largest record
prior to the start of the commercial campaign of the last five years); and
c) the 12.3 Mt of wheat committed to be sold abroad in the current
marketing season, which is a historical record for our country.
The last graph shows the volume of wheat already committed to be dispatched
abroad, according to official data by the Ministry of Agriculture. In all
cases, the graph shows total amount of metric tons sold from the "current
season" (today corresponding to commercial year 2016/17) and the "new
season" (to November 2017, corresponding to 2017/18). As it can be seen,
the recovery of wheat exports that began in 2015 is still thriving.