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14/11/2017 0:00 - Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFIA CORINA
Another success looms for wheat season

In Argentina, the 2017/18 wheat crop year purchases have accelerated and they have already committed 28% of the estimated production. As a consequence, the wheat balance sheet shows narrow ending stocks. Brazil, Argentina’s main customer, might reduce its wheat crop by 28.4% y/y, while Argentina could harvest 500 thousand tons less than last year; all of it setting a bullish scenario.

The wheat demand is ahead of the harvesters. The new crop purchases have already reached 4.5 Mt, against 2.6 Mt as of the same date last year.

During the crop cycle, the price was attractive for farmers; therefore, 3.9 Mt of the total purchases is already priced. Currently, harvest prices are around USD 170/t. Though it is considered an attractive price, bullish expectations due to lower new crop ending stocks have slowed down selling.

 

Brazil, the main Argentinian wheat buyer, could be a key player in 2017/2018 marketing year. Brazilian wheat crop was affected by adverse weather, resulting in a production of 4.8 Mt for the current season, that is to say 28.4% below 2016/17 figure of 6.7 Mt (CONAB).

The graph below shows that Argentina has been recovering its role as the main wheat provider to Brazil. It is estimated that Brazilian imports in 2017/18 could be higher in order to satisfy its demand, which will be supportive for Argentina’s wheat local prices.

 

Meanwhile, in Argentina, harvesters have started in the north, showing productivities above expectations. Some weather events (floods, high temperatures and hail), in addition to other biotic factors (strong pressure of spots and rust, as well as some fusarium and aphids), cut back the national production from earlier projections. According to GEA - Strategic Guide for Agro, the 2017/2018 wheat production could be between 16.3 and 16.5 Mt, versus last season’s record of 17 Mt.

During the crop cycle, the producers had to do an extra effort to control the cereal health by applying up to 2 or 3 passes of fungicides, contributing to revealing which are the seeds varieties with higher diseases susceptibility. The farmers behavior showed that they are willing to invest in technology for wheat, while in the past years wheat production was considered a marginal crop.

The elimination of export taxes and restrictions led to the return of Argentine wheat to the world market, which is the reason for 2017/18 purchases going ahead and reaching a record for the last five years. Although the national production could be lower than last season’s due to adverse weather, it is still showing a high productivity level in comparison to the previous years. The higher seeding intention, the better applied technology and the unrestricted commercialization could lead us into another successful wheat season

 

 Institutional video


Institutional Video of the Bolsa de Comercio of Rosario (Rosario Board of Trade)

 Rosario Board of Trade

The Rosario Board of Trade is a centennial institution located in Rosario, in the most important agroindustrial zone of Argentina. Throughout its history it has created and boosted transparent, solid and reliable markets: the Grains Physical Market, the Futures Market, the Capital Market, and the Livestock Market.

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Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario Córdoba 1402 - S2000AWV
TE: (54 341) 5258300 / 4102600
TE: (54 341) 5258325 (Complejo de Laboratorios - servicioalcliente@bcr.com.ar)
Rosario - Santa Fe - Argentina

Oficina Buenos Aires Reconquista 458 piso 7° - C1003ABJ - Cdad. de Buenos Aires.
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contacto@bcr.com.ar