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 News

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA
Who exported grains and by-products in 2017? Which were the destinations?

​Argentina dispatched around 82 Mt of grains, protein meals and vegetable oils in 2017. Cargill, Cofco and Bunge were the three main exporters. The five main exporters shipped close to 57% of the total exports of Argentina, while the first ten companies dispatched 88%. China and Brazil were the main buyers of Argentine grain, since they bought 25% of the total grains shipments. Five countries acquired more than half of the grains shipments of Argentina. The batch of buyers of soybean meal remains atomized and Argentina continues to be heavily dependent on India's purchases of soyoil and sunoil.

Agricultural Commodities Market
CORINA - TERRÉ
No floor for yields nor ceiling for prices in soybeans

​Drought conditions worsened in February and left soybean conditions in Argentina under very severe thermohydric stress. National yield plummeted without finding a floor yet, while cash prices skyrocketed to its highest level in 4 years.

Agricultural Commodities Market
RAMSEYER - TERRE
Market is trying to persuade Argentinian producers to seed more wheat

With a lower offer and a strong demand, prices for 2018/19 wheat to be delivered next harvest (between Dec-18 and Jan-19) at Rosario’s terminal ports climbed to US$ 190/ton, the same value that is currently being offered for the grain to be delivered in July 2018, meaning that exporters are willing to give up any seasonal advantage.

Agricultural Commodities Market
RAMSEYER - TERRE
Argentinian corn exporters keep adjusting their strategy to the lower production context

​Argentinian shipping commitments so far this year is already three times above last 5 years’ average. Given the risk of keep discounting production to 2017/18 crop year estimates, exporters have enough motivation to assure the possession of the grain and prices escalated accordingly in the week to March 2nd.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
80% of the core region in drought conditions

​Insufficient rainfall and high temperatures left an unprecedented water deficit in the region. The drought condition extends to 80% of the core region. The second crops advance in their cycle and the possibility to recover yield is decreasing.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - JULIO CALZADA
Gran Rosario keeps the first place as the largest exporter region in 2017

Argentine port nodes exported 87.6 Mt of grains, oilseed, meals and vegetable oils in 2017. The most important node was the Gran Rosario accounting 68.6 Mt. Bahia Blanca was second with almost 9 Mt and Quequén, third, with 6 Mt. The exports from the Gran Rosario and Zárate region increased while Bahía Blanca and Quequén had a fall in their volume compared with 2016. The port node with the highest growth was Zárate. The Gran Rosario share of total, grew to 78% in 2017 from 77% in 2016. 

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - FRANCO RAMSEYER
Good market prospects for wheat planting

​Domestic wheat prices continue to send signals to stimulate the cereal’s sowing, with next year’s crop prices above the current ones. Weather conditions are worrying for the planting of the cereal. In North America, the drought doesn’t step back and the USDA reduced their export estimates.​

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Argentine coarse grains suffer another week without rain

March rains are similar to February exhibiting a rather large deficit. The beginning of the new local harvest and the Chicago prices downturn drove down the prices for the local soybean.  At the other market, the needs of the export sector allowed the corn to get around the rock and stand firm on its upward path. 

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Drought hurries coarse grains businesses

The bidders rush to deliver corn to take advantage of the premium that gives the present delivery in comparison to the deliveries for the next month, in a campaign in which the financial needs of the producing sector are exacerbated by the drought. Without certainty about the volume of Argentine soybeans and corn that will be produced this year, ensuring the merchandise's origination seems to be the safest bet.          

Economics
EMILCE TERRÉ
How much are drought losses calculated in corn and soybeans?

The drought that has been affecting soybeans and corn in the 2017/2018 production season will imply a fall in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of more than 4,600 million dollars for the Argentine economy, from which US $ 1,550 million correspond to direct losses of the productive sector.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
Argentine wheat price rise due to foreign markets
Argentine wheat FOB prices increased 15 USD/MT in the last week due to a stronger demand from Brazil, Algeria and Southeast Asia countries. Thus, the increasing prices at the foreign markets helped to improve the local wheat prices. Therefore, the increasing demand along with the uncertain in the U.S supply boosted the 17/18 MY local wheat prices.
Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Soybean production drops to 40 MMT and corn to 32 MMT

Soybeans decline by 6.5 million tones and corn by 3 million tones compared to what was calculated in February.

Economics
JULIO CALZADA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Grain shipments grew in 2017, greater participation of “Gran Rosario”

According to official sources, shipments of grain from Argentina grew by 1.5% in 2017 reaching 48.4 million tonnes. The participation of the terminals of the Gran Rosario also increased in those shipments, 66% of the grains shipped in 2017 came out from this area (29.7 Mt). On the other hand, at the country level, shipments of wheat abroad tripled in the last two years. Furthermore, corn represented 50% of the Argentine shipments.

Transport & Logistics
PATRICIA BERGERO – JULIO CALZADA – ALFREDO SESÉ
Impressive transportation movement generated by grains in Argentina

We analyze the transport of agro-grains in 2017, quantifying the quantity of trucks, railway wagons and barges that brought grains, meals and oils to all the country's ports. About 2.5 million trucks, 243,000 rail wagons, 4,300 barges and 3,000 ships would have entered the 6 nodes.

Transport & Logistics
JULIO CALZADA - ALFREDO SESÉ
Strong movement of agro-bulks in the Gran Rosario in 2017

According to our estimates, approximately 1,990,000 trucks, 184,000 railroad wagons and 4,300 barges would have entered the Gran Rosario. To this must be added about 2,350 ships that loaded grains, oils and by-products and loading/unloading of different nature and origin merchandise.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
Available wheat has appreciated in relation to the next harvest

The strong external demand of wheat pushed the value of the cereal upwards for the current season, while external losses and some optimism regarding the rains in the coming weeks pushed the values offered by next harvest wheat.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - BLAS ROZADILLA
Coarse grains see their offer and prices fall

The national harvest projections continue to adjust negatively. In spite of this, the splicing of prices with the new soybean crop and the external losses pushed the prices of the oilseed and corn during the week.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Lost yields caused by the drought

The 20% harvested soybeans indicates less yields and production drops of 500 thousand tons in the core region.

Business
JULIO CALZADA - CARINA FRATTINI
Historical record for financial derivatives in Argentina

2017 was a year of great activity for the futures markets, with a remarkable performance of ROFEX S.A. The growth in the volumes operated highlight the usefulness of the instruments traded in these markets for the national economy.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO-BLAS ROZADILLA
South America as the leading exporting crusher in soybean complex

From 2012 to 2017, the oilseed processing industry grew 18% in capacity in 4G + UY (the main exporting producers -Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay- plus Uruguay). With the capacity to process more than 133 Mt of soy, South America effectively industrializes 32% (93.2 Mt) of the global total, the same 32% of China and over the 18% of the US. The export profile of the region is because 75% of the world trade in oil and soybean meal is from South American origin. Argentina leads the large-scale, modern and efficient industry model, which processes locally and places products in the international arena.

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - SOFÍA CORINA - FEDERICO DI YENNO - FRANCO RAMSEYER
The price of wheat helps and the weather seems to give a break

In the last month of March the average price of wheat with to be delivered in December in Rosario reached an interesting figure, being higher than that evidenced in previous campaigns. The economic equation is interesting. It remains to analyze the soils' moisture reserves that will be crucial to to define the hectares sown and the output of wheat 18/19.

Agricultural Commodities Market
BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
USA and China threaten with a trade war and the soybean market trembles

This week the world markets were shaken by the exchange of threats to impose tariffs on imports from the United States to China and vice versa on a series of products, which includes shipments of soybeans and corn from North America to the Asian giant. In this context, the South American soybeans were considerably appreciated in relation to the North American ones.

Transport & Logistics
JULIO CALZADA - ALFREDO SESÉ
What granary load can a bitrain carry and how much could be saved in fuels?
In this article we continue with the analysis developed in a previous note, regarding the bitrains. As it was pointed out, "bitrains" are understood as a formation based on a truck (tractor unit) with at least two trailers that articulate with each other, by means of a type B coupling system also known as a "fifth wheel". The bitrains’ length can vary, depending on the country, between 19 and 30 meters long, with weights ranging from 53 to 75 gross tons.
Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - BLAS ROZADILLA
Vegetable oils shipments abroad in 2017
Argentina continues to be the world's leading exporter of soybean oil and the third world exporter of sunflower oil. In spite of the fact that in 2017 Argentine vegetable oils’ shipments abroad fell by 4.7% with respect to the previous year, our country continues to export close to 6 million tons. The “Gran Rosario” continues to be the main industrializing and exporter of vegetable oils, and Renova and Terminal VI were the port hubs that shipped the largest volume of vegetable oils last year. Together, they dispatched 41.3% of the national total.
Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
In 2017, Argentine shipments of oilseed’s by products remained high
Shipments of oilseed’s by-products from Argentine ports remained at 32.7 MT in 2017. The “Gran Rosario” continues to lead industrialization, showing an increase in shipments abroad from the southern port terminals. In the hubs of the North of the “Gran Rosario” the shipments diminished, nevertheless, the two Argentine ports that greater amount of by-products dispatched in 2017 are precisely in this metropolitan area.
Agricultural Commodities Market
RAMSEYER – TERRÉ
The harvest advance confirms new production cuts, particularly in soybeans
New cuts in the production of coarse grains put pressure on exporters and industrialists to accelerate de grains origination. Indeed, coarse grains' purchases far exceed the volumes of the previous campaigns. Corn closes the week up while soybean prices are being arbitrated with the external markets.
Agricultural Commodities Market
ROZADILLA – TERRÉ
Rains allow to recover the illusion of planting wheat for the 2018/19 season
Faced with the dilemma of the producing sector between minimizing the pretensions on scarce water resources and securing an income in December, after a campaign that leaves it financially beaten, the rains of the previous week and attractive prices allow to recover the optimism for 2018/19 plantings.
Transport & Logistics
CALZADA – SESÉ
Radiography of Cargo transportation in Argentina
Analyzing the cargo transport market in Argentina, it is estimated that it could amount to 450 million tons per year, adding loads by truck, rail, air and those that go through the Paraná-Paraguay Waterway from the Port of Santa Fe to Puerto Cáceres (Brazil) or the other way round. Of this total, 91% would be transported by truck, 4.2% by rail, 4.8% by the Paraná-Paraguay Waterway and less than 0.1% by air (in this case, computing international, cabotage and mail).
Transport & Logistics
CALZADA – SESÉ
By 2026, there would be growth in the grain charges transported both by bitrains and traditional trucks
The present article projects the effects to the year 2026 of the introduction of the bitrain to the fleet of trucks that annually transport grains to the Argentine ports. It is concluded that there is room for both the traditional trucks and the bitrains to increase the transported tons and the number of operations. By 2026, 98% of the trips would be made with traditional trucks for a total of 74.2 Mt, while the Bitrains would participate with 2%, or 3.1 Mt.
Agricultural Commodities Market
BERGERO - ROZADILLA
Last decade’s changes in the ranking of oilseed crushing companies in Argentina
The scale of Argentina allowed it to add 43,600 t / 24h in the last decade to its processing capacity, compared to 53,500 t / 24h for the rest of the other countries in South America. A decade with some name changes, and Timbúes slipping between Puerto General San Martín and San Lorenzo. These three locations together have 59% of the oilseed processing facilities in Argentina.
Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
Wheat 18/19: New crop forward volume reached the highest value in 17 years.
Forwards contracts volume reached 500 thousand tons, while a few weeks remains to start the local wheat sowing. This is the highest value in record since 2001. Currently, demand for wheat is strong at the local market, even more in MATba July futures contracts. The spread between the July contracts and new crop contracts surpassed 50 USD / Tn.
Agricultural Commodities Market
TERRÉ – ROZADILLA
The agroindustrial chain tries to accommodate in a campaign devastated by the drought
The market seeks to accommodate in a coarse grains campaign injured by the drought. In corn, the lower supply is contrasted with a strong external demand while the Argentine soy complex industry, with an operating capacity of 66 Mt / year, fears for the supply of soybeans, necessary to sustain its level of activity.
Crop Progress and Condition Reports
Rains would increase wheat's area
Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - EMILCE TERRÉ
How is barley profiled for the 2018/19 campaign

Soybean prices recovered their value in the last week encouraged by better prices of by-products in the foreign market. The corn traded down, product of export prices to the downside, not influenced by the commercial uncertainty caused by the China - US relationship.

Agricultural Commodities Market
BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
The Black Sea wheat, a benchmark that is consolidating in the international market

The countries of the Black Sea region have steadily increased their wheat production in the last two decades, although it is the growth of their exports that stands out the most. This has led Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to dominate the international cereal trade, taking 35% of the global flow in the current campaign 2017/18.

Agricultural Commodities Market
RAMSEYER - TERRÉ
Wheat prices hit a record of almost 4 years

Water does not spare in any of the main wheat producing regions of the Northern Hemisphere, giving support to the cereal prices in Argentina. The scarce cereal availability in Argentina in the current campaign provides additional support, and MATBA prices reached their highest value in almost 4 years.

Agricultural Commodities Market
DI YENNO - ROZADILLA
Soybean rises and corn falls in the external market

Soybean prices recovered their value in the last week encouraged by better prices of by-products in the foreign market. The corn traded down, product of export prices to the downside, not influenced by the commercial uncertainty caused by the China - US relationship.

Business
DI YENNO - TERRÉ
ROFEX launches its future on local stock index

ROFEX 20 is the new stock index comprised of the 20 most relevant shares in the Argentine capital market and included as an underlying asset in the futures contract listed and developed by ROFEX. This tool helps to perfectly cover the holding of a diversified portfolio of shares or to increase leverage in the stock market.

Economics
JULIO CALZADA - FEDERICO DI YENNO - CLAUDIO MOLINA
Argentine biodiesel balance-sheet 2018

Following is a series of projections made by the Rosario Board of Trade regarding the balance-sheet of supply and demand of Argentine biodiesel for the year 2018, considering different local and international scenarios that could be presented based on the evolution of the variables that are relevant for the Biodiesel trade. In a context of high volatility in terms of exports and consumption, both locally and internationally, three different scenarios were formulated.

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - SOFÍA CORINA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Wheat complex prepares for a record crop year

The positive aspect of recent rains in the Argentine agricultural region is the possibility to encourage the wheat plantings ahead of the new 2018/19 season. In a favorable prices context and with the soils' humidity assured, the productive sector could extend the covered area to around 6 million hectares, according to the average expectation of the market, growing 10% with respect to the previous year. If this figure is reached, the wheat's contribution to the Argentine Gross Product will amount to US $ 3,800 million, while its complex will contribute foreign exchange for US $ 2,800 million. Really relevant figures.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO - BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Last week, corn prices evolved better than soybean ones

Corn improves as a result of the need to comply with commitments, when the weather makes logistics difficult. The demanding pressure of the exporters put upward influence on this product, while the margins of the soybean exports limit the rises. Internationally, the market focused on the USDA report on Thursday, which cut the stock projections for corn and soybeans.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - FEDERICO DI YENNO
Good perspectives for 2018/19 wheat planting in Argentina

The prospects for the sowing of wheat 2018/19 are still favorable for an increase in area. Rains are positive for the new crop, but complicate this year's cereal deliveries. The strength of the demand and a limited remaining offer boost wheat prices in the local market.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
500 thousand tonsof soybeans could be loss due to excessive water in the core region

The harvest of 308 thousand hectares of first soybeans and 500 thousand hectares of second soybeans in the core region is still pending. There were four weeks with high humidity and temperatures and more than 100 millimeters in the first 10 days of May after the excessive rains in April. There is concern that the April 2016 scenario, where most of the harvest was lost, will be repeated.

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
Argentine biodiesel seeking for new customers

The United States Department of Commerce´s decision to apply dumping tariffs to Argentine biodiesel generated the need for local companies to go out and look for new destinations for the placement of this product. This explains the recent incursion of Argentina into the Canadian market, a country to which 29,000 tons of biodiesel would have been dispatched in March, while new operations were expected for the recent future. 

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FRANCO RAMSEYER
The industry also suffers the drought: Soybean crushing in April is the lowest of the last decade

The 2018/17 huge fall of production, as a result of the drought that affected crops last summer, led to a decline in the soy processing activity that had the worst starting month of the last 10 years. In corn, the drought in Brazil improves the chances of placing our crop.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO - EMILCE TERRÉ
Good pace of negotiations for next harvest´ wheat

Wheat plantings have begun in the core region, as well as the businesses for the delivery of this cereal in December and January encouraged by the good harvest prices. In our region, some lands are already being planted with cereals, although work is expected to be widespread from this weekend.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - JULIO CALZADA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Agricultural producers were left without 30 Mt of grains to sell; a hard blow for them and for the Argentine economy.

The worst drought of the last 50 years devastated soybeans and corn in the summer, while the period of excessive humidity in April gave it the final punch. To date, 30 million tons are lost, and with them a producers´ gross income of US $ 7,500 and a foreign currency income for the Argentine economy of US $ 8,000 million. The cost for the economic activity already amounts to 1% of the estimated GDP for the year.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Soybean 2017/2018: the crop year ends with 14.9 million tons in the core region

After the worst drought of the last 50 years and then, the large amount of rainy days and high temperatures, the region lost 6.1 million tons of soybeans.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FRANCO RAMSEYER - BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Factors behind agricultural commodities´ prices

Grain markets - where supply and demand meet in order to determine prices and quantities- are usually influenced by a large number of factors. These factors impact on both suppliers and demanders´ behavior and decisions. In the following article, we will analyze the main determinants to be taken into account when considering possible movements in the prices of agricultural commodities, and their recent evolution.

Economics
JULIO CALZADA - FEDERICO DI YENNO - CARINA FRATTINI
A look into Argentina´s pig production

Although Argentine pig sector is small, it has optimal natural and sanitary conditions to grow, become self-sufficient and export. The pork chain has experienced significant growth in recent years with great potential to increase domestic consumption and replace imports. Today, there is a problem with the Value-Added Tax (IVA in Spanish), which discourages new investments and demands an urgent solution.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
Strong level of wheat commercialization

Lots of external sales of wheat where made over the last days, to be shipped between the end of this year and the beginning of 2019, corresponding to the next commercial year. For the current one, both exporters and millers maintain a robust pace of purchases, leaving only 3.2 Mt available for purchase in the next six months.

Economics
JULIO CALZADA - FEDERICO DI YENNO
Biodiesel export taxes and the convenience of expanding internal consumption

Recently, Argentine Government decided to increase the export duties on biodiesel from 8% to 15%. Therefore, the effective tax goes from 7.41% to 13.04% over the FOB biodiesel value. Anticipating that this measure will cause a loss of income for local biodiesel producers, it is proposed to consider measures that mitigate the impact.

Agricultural Commodities Market
Rosario Board of Trade - Economic Research Department
Perspectives for Argentine agriculture in 2018/19

With a projection of 37 million hectares to plant in 2018/19, the producer´s investment to cover this area would be around US $ 10,100 million. Through which instruments would the producer be financed? That is the question to answer and is analyzed in this text. With normal climatic conditions, trend yields and without disadvantages, it could mean a gross value of production equivalent to 25,500 million US dollars and an income for exports close to 26,400 million dollars.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - FEDERICO DI YENNO - FRANCO RAMSEYER
Soybean and corn prices fall in the domestic market

While prices of corn and soybeans fell on the CBOT overt the last week, domestic declines were less pronounced. In the Northern Hemisphere, favorable weather conditions prevail for crops and commercial conflict with China is disturbing. In Argentina, the commercial advance puts another imprint on prices.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - SOFÍA CORINA - BLAS ROZADILLA
Eyes put on next harvest wheat

The local market deepened its interest in the new wheat crop, with more than 2 million tons of cereal 18/19 nationally negotiated. Meanwhile, the planting advances with excellent climatic conditions in the Argentine soils.

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - BLAS ROZADILLA
Planted Area in Argentina for 2018/19. The Oil World predictions

The international consultancy Oil World gave its first estimates for the 2018/19 plantings in Argentina. It is expected that local producers will increase the area devoted to extensive crops, covering 32.7 million hectares. In addition, the area destined to cereals is projected to continue expanding, displacing soybeans, to reach a maximum of 16.12 million hectares. Likewise, the estimate marks a recovery in the area of soybean production with a strong participation of second-planting soybeans.

Agricultural Commodities Market
EMILCE TERRÉ
International low prices put pressure on soybeans, but the demand for export sustains corn

Given the commercial tensions between China and the United States, soybean prices fell to its lowest value in more than a year in Chicago, which dragged the Argentine market. In the case of corn, a high volume of shipments scheduled for the next two weeks from the port terminals of Rosario maintains the level of activity (and with it, prices) of the local market.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FEDERICO DI YENNO
The external demand of 2018/19 wheat increases, but also the exports of competing countries

The main extra-Brazilian export destinations for Argentine wheat are found in Algeria, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. These last two zones will be the main importing regions of world wheat in the 18/19 commercial year, while the total import of Argentina´s clients is expected to increase by 1.15 Mt. In the previous week, wheat operations in Rosario Board of Trade fell sharply, accompanying the fall in local prices.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Argentine core region could produce more than 5.5 million tons of wheat this crop year

High doses of fertilizers will be used, leading the core region to exceed the last year´s yields of 4,3 tn/ha. The strong bet on wheat can lead to a new production record.

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA
Wheat milling of the 1st quarter of 2018 is the highest in the last five years

According to official information from the Argentine Ministry of Agroindustry, the milling of wheat accumulated in the months January-April 2018 in Argentina totals 1.85 million tons, the highest record since the first quarter of 2012.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
The commercial conflict between the US and China puts the price of coarse grains in suspense

The local spot price of soybeans in dollars falls more than U$S 15.5 / t so far in June. The same happened with corn, falling U$S 6 / t in a week. The fall in price follows the escalation in the trade dispute between China and the US. The lower demand of US soybeans is diverted to South America, mainly to the Brazilian ports.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
Exports slow down and wheat prices deflate

The exporters have fit their origination of merchandise with their commitments to sell abroad, relaxing buying pressure in the local market and deflating the spot cereal prices in the cash market, which fell by 1.3% in the week. Next harvest wheat, meanwhile, receives support from the problems for Russian production that improve the export prospects of the rest of the international suppliers.

Economics
JULIO CALZADA - INGRID CLAUSEN - SOFÍA CORINA
How could the new generations of agricultural producers be?

One of the major current concerns of the Rosario Board of Trade is to anticipate technological scientific changes. An important question in this topic that goes beyond a mere exercise in futurology is the following: How could the new generations of agricultural producers be?

Transport & Logistics
JULIO CALZADA - ALFREDO SESÉ
Good news for Argentine soybean meal: ocean freight is one of the lowest of the last 25 years

Sea freight to take grains and by-products to Europe is at one of the lowest levels in the last 25 years. It represents 5% of the product´s export price, when in 2007 it was almost 21%. In real terms, bulk ocean freight from Argentina to Europe barely grew by 10% in almost 20 years. This is favorable for our country.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO - FRANCO RAMSEYER
The price of next harvest wheat keeps its downward path, generating lower volume of marketing

2018/19 wheat future prices are falling in Argentina, influenced by better expectations for local production and international factors, such as the appreciation of the dollar and the US and Chinese trade conflict that spills negative effects on international commodity and financial markets.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Good production prospects in the US and trade tensions with China push down the coarse grains

Soybean and corn crops are entering the reproductive stage in the United States in good conditions. Despite the predictions of high temperatures, humidity is enough to limit the potential damage. At a local level, in spite of accelerating the declarations of sales abroad, the entrance of soybeans to Rosario remains lethargic. Meanwhile, the outlook for a strong demand gives greater support to corn.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FRANCO RAMSEYER
2017 / 2018 wheat in a tight market

The hectic pace of wheat 2017/18 purchases covers 84% of Argentine production, exceeding by 7 percentage points the average rate of the last 5 years. With a strengthened export profile, the final stocks of wheat would be very low. The 2018/19 commercial year, meanwhile, looks promising to meet the demand.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
The local price of coarse grains remains stable

Last week, the price of soybeans in the US it maintained its downward trend as a result of the commercial conflict that China is going through with the United States. However, local soybeans maintained due to better export prices of by-products. Corn continues to fall, although it may be sustained by an adjusted world balance.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
The grasses would expand on half a million hectares

The sowing of wheat confirms the highest level of planting in the Argentine core region in the last 16 years, with 250 thousand hectares more than last year. Corn also points to a large area expansion.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FEDERICO DI YENNO - EMILCE TERRÉ
Planted area will expand in 2018/2019 for almost all crops in Argentina

After the productive setback of the 2017/18 commercial year, the field is expected to rise the bet to plant 1 million more hectares in 2018/19. Based on an agricultural area of 37.3 M ha and assuming trend yields, the total grain production in Argentina is prepared to increase by 22% to 120 million tons. At today's prices, the gross value of primary production could reach USD 23.2 billion and exports USD 25.5 billion.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FRANCO RAMSEYER - BLAS ROZADILLA
China and the United States hit the coarse grains

The commercial conflict between the two largest world economies caused that, since the month of May, soybeans and corn felt more than 20% in the Chicago market. On Thursday 12, the USDA published its monthly report of supply and demand, with bearish indicators for the oilseed and bullish for corn. In the local market there is very little 2017/18 soybean available to be marketed.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
The tighter world balance provides support for wheat

There is too much soybeans and cereals are lacking. This is USDA´s conclusion, according to its latest monthly Supply and Demand report, as a result of the latest trade changes between China and the US and the adverse weather that the main cereal global producers go through. At the local scale, wheat export purchases and sales for both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 commercial years are record.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
1.35 million hectares of wheat were planted in the core region

The sowing of wheat has ended and the crop is growing without limitations. 1.35 million hectares of wheat were planted in the core region. 75% of wheat is between excellent and very good conditions.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
Argentina´s 2018/19 wheat exceeded the US $ 200 / t barrier

The deterioration wheat conditions in key producers of the Northern Hemisphere led to a rise in the cereal´s price in the main world markets, and Argentina was no exception. Encouraged by good export prospects, the price of 2018/19 wheat increased by 5% in the week to US $ 205 / t.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
Corn and Soybean Prices Rise at the Local Market

The prices of coarse grains, at cash market and at the futures market, had a marked recovery in the last week, following the spread they have with wheat. This is because the lower supply for wheat worldwide generates a bullish momentum for grains in general, as long as demand remains constant.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFIA CORINA - FEDERICO DI YENNO – FRANCO RAMSEYER
Weather hits wheat supply worldwide

Wheat price (U$S 223.80/t) to harvest, on the first days of August, is the highest on record in MATba (Buenos Aires Futures Market). If this value holds, it would be one of the best prices for the cereal, without restrictions on foreign trade, since 1997.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Exports support corn while soybean prices decreased locally

Corn is underpinned by exports as soybean price dropped this week due to international commercial tensions and the fall of soybean meal's FOB.  

Economics
JULIO CALZADA – FEDERICO DI YENNO – EMILCE TERRÉ
The multilateral real exchange rate in Argentina in the last 20 years

In the present article, we look at the multilateral real exchange rate index developed by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). Although the purchasing power of Argentine peso in relation to the currencies of our main trading partners has increased in the last two months due to the modification of the nominal exchange rate, this is still well below the average value that the currency held from 2004 to 2011 and the values following the 2001 crisis.

Economics
PATRICIA BERGERO - JULIO CALZADA – CRISTIAN RUSSO – GUILLERMO WADE
The low water of Paraná River and its impact on the oil complex of Rosario Hub

For several weeks, the Paraná River in Rosario is approximately 0.50 meters below its usual water level due to the extraordinary low water levels measured in the past months. The present situation arises because of the lack of rain in southern Brazil that affects water levels of rivers Paraná and Paraguay.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - DESIRÉ SIGAUDO - EMILCE TERRÉ
Projections on Argentina’s 2018/19 wheat crop supply and demand

Although it is expected a tight wheat market during the season transition, the new crop will be up for a rematch. Argentine productive sector is on track to achieve a record wheat harvest in 2018/19 season, based on an estimated area of 6.32 million hectares. Given the intended yields, this would lead to a production of 21 million tones, a potential new historic mark for grain exports.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO - BLAS ROZADILLA
The increase of local prices in a context of low transactions volume

Local price for soybean fell from August 2 to August 9 due to the lower external demand, which made the FOB basis for by-products at Rosario Hub's ports decrease. 

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO - EMILCE TERRÉ
Projection of 2018/19 soybean entry in the Rosario Hub

Given the recovery of production, 2018/19 soybean crop entry in Rosario Hub ports reaches 40 million tons, a volume 16% higher than the average of the previous three years. This volume of trade will generate an expansive positive effect on the regional economy that will favor the sector, overcoming the difficulties of the season. This figure results from projecting the entry of oilseed to the plants and port terminals of the Rosario Hub based on the estimated demand for processing and export.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FEDERICO DI YENNO - EMILCE TERRÉ
Good market prospects for corn and wheat

Despite the season's lower production due to adverse weather conditions, corn is underpinned by the strong global demand, as wheat exports reach a monthly record for August. As for the new wheat supply, the combination of good prices and favorable climatic conditions support planting intentions.

Agricultural Commodities Market
PATRICIA BERGERO - FEDERICO DI YENNO – BLAS ROZADILLA – DESIRE SIGAUDO
Soybean price strongly depends on volatility

Soybean prices in the spot and forward markets experienced high volatility during the week. On Friday the 10th USDA released its report that lowered soybean prices, while on Tuesday the 14th, Argentine Government announced a change in the scheme of retentions to soybean byproducts that also contributed to the downward. 

Transport & Logistics
ALFREDO SESÉ
An outlook on rail cargo in Argentina during the first half of the year

Argentina was affected by extreme weather conditions this season. Firstly, a drought devastated most productive areas, followed by a flood that affected several regions during the harvest. Although these phenomena lead to low crop volumes, the cargo transported by rail in in the first six months of 2018 had a slight year-on-year increase. 

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FEDERICO DI YENNO
Wheat overcomes the global decline

In an international bearish wheat market, Argentina FOB prices experienced a weekly positive variation. While in the local market, new wheat crop shows an unprecedented rhythm of commercialization. Furthermore, weather conditions would favor the growth and development of the crop.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - DESIRÉ SIGAUD - EMILCE TERRÉ
Corn won the game over soybean

Corn price increased underpinned by the export sector's demand, while soybean prices suffered the pressure of an external decline in a low demand market. Moreover, soybean by-products exports remain low, pushing prices down.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Santa Fe province strongly increases its share of total Argentine exports

In the past two decades, Argentine exports have more than doubled, going from US$ 26.5 billion to US$ 58.5 billion. In addition, between 1997 and 2017 Santa Fe is the province that increased its national exports share the most, going from 16% to 23%. This rise of 7 percentage points it is due to the oilseed processing industry blooming. The province of Córdoba, meanwhile, went from 10% to 13% in twenty years, while the share of Buenos Aires province fell from 39% to 33% in the same period.

Economics
JULIO CALZADA - SOFÍA CORINA - ALFREDO SESÉ - EMILCE TERRÉ
Inland water freights in Argentina increased by 32% in two years

Inland waterway transport is the type of transportation that contributes the most to the competitiveness of grain production by its low costs in terms of investment and maintenance. Despite river freights represent a small share of the national transport system, it's been growing considerably over the past years. The total volume of grain transported by inland waterways during 2017 reached 875 thousand tons, 32.3% more than in 2015.

Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA – SOFÍA CORINA – BLAS ROZADILLA
The eonomy of Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces

The provinces of Chaco and Santiago del Estero have an important role in Argentina's grains production. Their combined output of the main grains (soybean, corn, wheat and sorghum) in the 2016/17 crop was of 12.1 million tons (MT), which represents almost 10% of the national total. In addition to this, there is Chaco's sunflower production, the second most important producer after Buenos Aires province. Part of the region's grain production is sent to the Rosario Hub cluster by river from the ports of Barranqueras (Chaco) and Vilelas (Chaco). In 2017, both terminals shipped more than half a million tons of grains (soybeans, corn and wheat), a volume that set a new historical record.

Economics
PATRICIA BERGERO – EMILCE TERRÉ
Some considerations on Argentina’s new export taxes scheme

On September 4, the President publish the Decree 793/2018 that imposed a new regime of export duties for all goods and services that Argentina commercialize abroad. The new scheme will be effective until December 31, 2020. This article presents some preliminary considerations about the new export taxes regime and its possible effects in different scenarios.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO – JULIO CALZADA – PATRICIA BERGERO
Agribusiness exports continue to originate foreign currency in spite of the production losses caused by the drought

The devastating drought that was followed by rains during the harvest in Argentina reduced the total grains production of 2017/18 crop. However, the agro-export sector continued to contribute with US$ in the first 7 months of the year. During the Jan-Jul period this year, its contribution was 5% higher than last year's.

Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA – DESIRÉ SIGAUDO – EMILCE TERRÉ
Little supply and lack of moisture underpin wheat prices

Despite the increase in tax burden, through the introduction of new export duties, wheat price reflects the little supply of grain to grind and the fear that lack of soil moisture could worsen in the coming weeks.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO – EMILCE TERRÉ
New export duties condition the coarse grain market

Soybean and corn harvest forward contracts increased by the end of August. Due to the uncertainty following the recent introduction of the new export taxes scheme and the suspension of export committed sales, there was a sharp decline in corn and soybean trading.  

Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - DESIRÉ SIGAUDO – EMILCE TERRÉ
Projections on 2018/19 corn arrivals at ports in the Rosario Hub

Thanks to the increase of crop rotation in recent years, which significantly improves soil conditions, corn cropland could reach the historical area of 6.8 million hectares in 2018/2019 crop that represents an increase of 51.3% in the last four years. A direct consequence of farmers bet on corn is the exportable balance of 26 million tons (MT), of which 21 MT would be shipped from the ports of the Rosario Hub.

Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
Wheat pulls back after posting gains for a week

Argentina wheat FOB prices fell below previous week's values on September 13. December wheat contract fell by US$ 7/t on Thursday at MATba (Buenos Aires Futures Market). 

Agricultural Commodities Market
EMILCE TERRÉ
Soybeans become more attractive than corn

Soybean improves its relative price in terms of corn. In addition, higher financing costs and the need to limit risk makes oilseed production more attractive than cereal. Soybean commercialization has recovered fluidity in the local market.

Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Soybean area rises to 17.9 million hectares and corn area decrease 200 thousand hectares

The soybean harvest 2018/2019 is projected at 50 million tons. The production of corn is estimated at 43 million tons.

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 News

08 jun 2018
COMMODITIES
Factors behind agricultural commodities´ prices
Grain markets - where supply and demand meet in order to determine prices and quantities- are usually influenced by a large number of factors. These factors impact on both suppliers and demanders´ behavior and decisions. In the following article, we will analyze the main determinants to be taken into account when considering possible movements in the prices of agricultural commodities, and their recent evolution.

24 may 2018 | Transport & Logistics
JULIO CALZADA - ALFREDO SESÉ
Remarkable: a quarter of the total Argentine loads are transported through Paraná-Paraguay waterway
In the weekly review No. 1,855 we had estimated the total loads annually transported in Argentina. That figure amounted to 450 million tons (Mt). It includes the loads transported by truck, rail, air and those that are shipped through the Paraná-Paraguay waterway from the Port of Santa Fe (Argentina) to the Port of Cáceres (Brazil).

27 feb 2018 | Business
FEDERICO DI YENNO
Crowdfunding in Argentina: keys to regulation
In support of the entrepreneurial activity, promoting the local development of productive activities and launching innovative financing systems, the National Securities Commission (CNV) regulated the creation of Collective Financing Systems. Known as "Crowdfunding" in the English language, with resolution No. 717 published last January, the CNV established for Argentina the norms for the financing of projects of different sizes and the development of new ideas, which have traditionally resorted to other funding sources for its initiation.

27 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
The pieces in the supply of cereal to the world are rearranged
The drought has already claimed 5 million tons of corn, breaking the hope that Argentina will increase the volume of exports in the 2017/18 season. In wheat, shipments do not disappoint but it is the United States that suffers the least competitiveness, and Chicago echoes.

27 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
EMILCE TERRÉ - FRANCO RAMSEYER
Paradigm shift for the Argentine soy market
After four consecutive years with Argentine final stocks of soybeans at or above 10 Mt, a brutal drought will cut inventories by at least half. The market responded to this change in trend and the Rosario Board of Trade broke AR$ 6,000/t barrier.

27 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
The investment funds change their positioning to bet on the rise of soybeans and corn
In January of this year in the Chicago futures market, if we add the positions in soy, corn and wheat, the funds registered their highest net short position in grains since 2006. As of the last week of that month, they began the strong short-coverage of these positions, with weekly purchases that approached record values. This shows the change in the general positioning of the funds with respect to these agricultural commodities. It would seem that today they stand in the market envisioning an upward trend in prices, especially in corn and soybeans, where they have a net purchased position.

19 feb 2018 | Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Due to the drought, Argentine core region´s production would fall by almost 4 M T compared to last year
Due to the lack of water, the production of soybean of the core region would be 16.8 million tons. Last year it was 20.6 million tons. The first soybean would yield 3,3 Tn, far from the 4,0 expected at the beginning of the campaign. The expectation in the second soybean crumbles. It could yield only 2,0 Tn/ha.

19 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
BLAS ROZADILLA - EMILCE TERRÉ
Fueled by climate, soybeans hold up their bullish potential
The drought in our country is still the main factor that moves prices. This week, both in the local market and in Chicago, the oilseed continued on its upward path. Soybean meal, of which Argentina dominates the international market, leads the rises in the soybean complex and so far this year its price increased US$65 /ton in CME Group.

19 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
FRANCO RAMSEYER - EMILCE TERRÉ
Cereals are praying for rains in the United States and Argentina.
Dry weather combined with low temperatures in the United States give a boost to the external price of wheat, improving the competitiveness of Argentine shipments. Meanwhile, the lack of rain worries the new Argentine maize campaign, thus, buyers are rushing to ensure the supply of merchandise.

14 feb 2018 | Crop Progress and Condition Reports
GEA
Soybeans need water soon
The signs of drought expanded to all soybean crops in the region. The technicians speak of a reproductive drought, very damaging, that could seriously impact on yields.

14 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
JULIO CALZADA - BLAS ROZADILLA
The seed, key link in the agri-food chain
For an agricultural producer country like Argentina, the seed industry is very important and it is enough to observe some key indicators. This complex comprises more than 2,600 companies, employs more than 115,000 people directly and indirectly, has an annual seed production of almost 1 Mt, an annual turnover of 1,500 million dollars and exports of 285 million dollars. In addition, our country is the 9th world producer of seeds -second in the Latin American ranking-, 10th world exporter in dollars and 17th world exporter in negotiated volume.

14 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
EMILCE TERRÉ - FRANCO RAMSEYER
Critical moment for soybean and corn campaigns
Weather is being decisive to determine the coarse grains harvest 2017/18. Each additional day that passes without rain reduces the yield potential of Argentina’s main exporting complexes. Whatever happens with the climate will not only have impact on the farmers, but also on the entire Argentine economy.


05 feb 2018 | Agricultural Commodities Market
SOFÍA CORINA - FRANCO RAMSEYER
Climate puts Pressure on Argentina’s Soybeans and Corn.
The critical month for soybeans is starting with climatic forecasts that would not satisfy the water demand of the crop in Argentina.

05 feb 2018 | Economics
JULIO CALZADA - FEDERICO DI YENNO
Agricultural equipment sales increased in 2017
Argentine agricultural machinery and equipment exports increased 11 % to November 2017 while local sales increased 79 % at the third quarter of 2017. The use of installed capacity in the sector also rose up to 78 % as September 2017 from the low of 50 % in 2015.

05 feb 2018 | Economics
JULIO CALZADA - ENRIQUE LASGOITY - FRANCO RAMSEYER
Field and Agroindustry: Engines of production, consumption and exports of fuels.
The field is responsible for almost a quarter of the total diesel consumption in our country and biofuels provide not only foreign currency but also help to increase the supply of naphtha and diesel that Argentina's automotive sector and the agricultural and livestock activities demand.

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 Institutional video


Institutional Video of the Bolsa de Comercio of Rosario (Rosario Board of Trade)

 Rosario Board of Trade

The Rosario Board of Trade is a centennial institution located in Rosario, in the most important agroindustrial zone of Argentina. Throughout its history it has created and boosted transparent, solid and reliable markets: the Grains Physical Market, the Futures Market, the Capital Market, and the Livestock Market.

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Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario Córdoba 1402 - S2000AWV
TE: (54 341) 5258300 / 4102600
Rosario - Santa Fe - Argentina

Oficina Buenos Aires Reconquista 458 piso 7° - C1003ABJ - Cdad. de Buenos Aires.
Tel: (54 - 011) 43280390/1484 43939391/9649- Fax: (54 - 011) 43939649
contacto@bcr.com.ar