Rosario Board of Trade projects great wheat arrivals at ports of the Rosario Hub
FEDERICO DI YENNO – FRANCO RAMSEYER – EMILCE TERRÉ
Favorable international prices and good export prospect, in a context of tight global supplies, encouraged Argentine producers to expand wheat cropland. Planted area is estimated at 6.32 million hectares, 14% more than in the previous cycle and 35% above five-year average. Estimated national yield is 34.4 quintals per hectare, resulting in a record production of 21 million tons for 2018/19 cycle. Therefore, new crop harvest will boost the volume of wheat arriving at the ports of the Rosario Hub in November. About 6.5 MT of wheat are expected to enter ports between November 2018 and February 2019. December estimated arrivals (1.9 MT) would represent the cycle's peak, followed by January (1.8 MT). From March on, wheat arrivals would enter their seasonal decline, as between March 2019 and October 2019 only 3.15 MT will enter the ports.
From the grains that arrive to the ports of Rosario Hub, wheat is the one that shows the most marked seasonal behavior that responds to the harvest period. December truck arrivals represents 20% of annual entries, as soybean arrivals in May (harvest) only represent 13% of the total. Corn, on the other hand, presents two seasonal peaks in March (first harvest) and August (second crop harvest), each of them representing around 14% of the total. The following graph displays transport patterns along the year.
In conclusion, if weather favors wheat, it can be expected a great entry of trucks at the ports of the Rosario Hub between November 2018 and February 2019. December volumes would the highest since 2017/08 cycle, 11 years ago.