As of July 7, the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Argentina shows a USD 3,490 million rise in foreign reserves over the last month. Total monetary assets (Monetary Base + Central Bank Notes) reached their lowest month-over-month growth rate in over a year, a mere 0.93%.
Weekly reports of the Central Bank of Argentina’s balance sheet show that, as of July 7, the monetary authority held foreign reserves worth a total ARS 824,422 million, or USD 48,569 million at the current official exchange rate of ARS 16.9743 per USD. Expressed in dollars, foreign reserves have grown 7.7 % over the last month and 44.2% in a year-over-year basis. Such increment has taken place even in spite of the US dollar strengthening over 6% against the local currency over the last month, as foreign reserves have risen 14.3% when measured in argentine pesos in the same period.
If we deduct checking accounts in other currencies (ARS 286,197 million) and other liabilities (ARS 204,128 million), we arrive to net international reserves of ARS 334,096 million, or USD 19,682 million. Net international reserves grew 10.5% over the past month, mainly due to “other liabilities” increasing at a lower rate than foreign reserves.
As of July 7, monetary base was ARS 856,485 million, rising 4.7% over the past month. In spite of such increment, year-over-year growth fell to 25.4% after averaging 31.8% throughout June.
The stock of debt securities issued by the monetary authority, which stands at ARS 958,190, is 2.2% below its level from one month ago. Total monetary liabilities (monetary base + debt issuance) have grown 0.93% during the same period, reaching the lowest month-over-month growth rate since May 2016. On a year-over-year basis, monetary liabilities have grown at a 45.8% clip as of July 7.
The ratio between international reserves to monetary liabilities, which had fallen steadily throughout 2017, turned a corner in mid-June after reaching a 39.5% low. Since then, the ratio has recovered to 45.4%, its highest level since April. Net foreign reserves represent 18.4% of monetary liabilities, rising 2.5 percentage points throughout the past month.
Federal government debt issuances held by the Central Bank total ARS 1,159,420 M, with a 3.7% month-over-month growth. To calculate total obligations from the Argentine government to the Central Bank, we must: add temporary loans by the federal government (ARS 478,730 M), contra account of the use of the reserve portion (ARS -12,478 M), contra account of special drawing rights (ARS -40,116 M) and deduct deposits from the argentine government and others (ARS 21,241) as well as contra account of Argentine government’s contribution to international organizations (ARS 49,925). As a result, we estimate total obligations from the Argentine government to the Central Bank equal to about ARS 1,514.4 billion or USD 89,217 million, with a 4.5% month-over month drop and a 18.3% year-over year rise in dollar terms.
The following chart shows the evolution of the foreign reserves to monetary liabilities ratio, as well as total Federal Government obligations held by the Central Bank.