Higher seasonal supply limited price rises, even despite a rebound in prices for Chicago soybeans and soybean byproducts. Over the last 2 weeks, prices have averaged around ARS 3,700 per ton. Monthly soybean crushing for May reached its second largest value.
Total soybean crush in Argentina reached 4,501,479 tons during May, its second largest volume for that month after May 2014, when 4,650,896 tons were processed. Looking at the pace of the processing industry, the first five months of the year also mark the second highest value in historical terms reaching 17,443,980 tons, only surpassed by the total processed for the same period of 2016, which accumulated 18,416,718 tons.
Analyzing monthly crushing data, the performance of the industrial sector in 2017 shows better performance than the average of the last 5 years. At the same time, there have been year over year increases in the months of March, April and May.
Looking at recent values, local soybeans peaked at 251 USD per ton on June 8, dropping USD 28 to USD 223 per ton by June 28. In the same period, the ARS/USD exchange rate increased went from 15.93 ARS/USD to 16.46 ARS/USD. Cash soybean prices went from ARS 4,000 per ton to
ARS 3,670 per ton, according to prices reported by the Arbitration Chamber of Cereals (CAC) of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
Concerning volume of soybeans already purchased this marketing year, there is still a large proportion of the crop yet to be priced, even if part of it was priced during June. As of June 21, exporters and crushing plants had bought 24.8 million tons, whereas last year (with a crop that was smaller than this year’s by 2 million tons) they had already bought 27.6 million tons. At the same time, there are about 9 million tons yet to be priced, whereas last year this number was 2.4 million tons lower. As a result, after accounting for seed use and farm processing, there are about 28.9 million tons yet to be sold and 37.8 million tons of soybean to be priced (according to our current production estimates of 57.3 million tons).
Finally, it is possible to paint a picture of export performance. After climbing a few steps in the ranking of export sales throughout the month of June, exports sales of soybeans remain the lowest in at least 6 years. By June 28 export sales totaled almost 4.5 million tons, slightly below the 12/13 season. For example, by the same date last year this value was over 7 million tons. By-products (meal and oil) continue to show a better performance but below last year.